As I sit here watching the summer league highlights from my office in Manila, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of hope and anxiety that comes with being a Filipino basketball fan. We've been waiting for this moment for what feels like forever - the real chance that Kai Sotto might finally break through to the NBA. The 2023 Summer League isn't just another basketball tournament for us; it's potentially the culmination of years of development, sacrifice, and that uniquely Filipino dream of seeing one of our own make it to the world's biggest basketball stage.
I remember first watching Kai play as a lanky 16-year-old dominating the FIBA Under-16 Asian Championship, putting up 16.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game while leading us to a silver medal. Even then, you could see the raw potential - a 7'3" center who could handle the ball, shoot from outside, and protect the rim. But potential is one thing; translating it to the NBA is entirely another matter. What gives me genuine optimism this time around is seeing how his game has matured during his time in Australia's NBL and his various international stints. He's put on about 25 pounds of muscle since those early days, and his defensive positioning has improved dramatically.
The comparison that keeps coming to mind for me is Manny Pacquiao's approach to big fights. I've followed Pacquiao's career closely, and there's something about that Filipino fighting spirit that both these athletes share. When people close to the eighth-time world division champion disclosed that Pacquiao would stay in the US after the Hall of Fame ceremony to continue training for the Barrios fight should it push through, it reminded me of Kai's current situation. That relentless commitment to preparation, that willingness to stay abroad and grind when others might celebrate early achievements - that's what separates good athletes from truly great ones. Kai has been doing exactly that, spending these crucial developmental years away from home, away from the comfort of being a big fish in a small pond.
Looking at his Summer League performance so far, the numbers might not jump off the page - he's averaging about 7.5 points and 5.2 rebounds in approximately 18 minutes per game through the first three contests. But statistics don't tell the whole story. What I'm seeing is improved footwork in the post, better recognition of double teams, and that rare ability to make passes that you just don't expect from someone his size. In yesterday's game against the Grizzlies, he made a behind-the-back pass in transition that genuinely surprised me - it showed a level of confidence and creativity that NBA teams value.
The reality is that making an NBA roster as an international big man has never been more challenging. Teams want centers who can switch on defense, space the floor on offense, and protect the rim - the so-called "unicorn" prototype. Kai checks some of these boxes with his shooting touch and shot-blocking ability, but he still needs to prove he can consistently defend NBA-level athletes in space. I've noticed he sometimes gets caught in no-man's land on pick-and-roll coverage, though his improvement in this area from last year's Summer League is noticeable.
What gives me hope is that the NBA game has evolved in ways that could benefit Kai's skill set. The league's increased emphasis on three-point shooting means teams are more willing to sacrifice traditional post defense for floor-spacing bigs. Kai's ability to knock down threes - he shot 38% from deep in Australia last season - could be his ticket to earning rotation minutes. The question isn't whether he has NBA-level skills; it's whether he can put them all together consistently against the world's best competition.
From conversations I've had with people around the basketball scene here, the general sense is that Kai needs to show two things in particular during this Summer League: durability and defensive versatility. NBA teams can live with offensive mistakes from young big men, but they won't tolerate defensive liabilities or concerns about staying healthy. Kai's injury history has been a concern - he missed significant time last year with a back issue - but he appears fully healthy now, moving better than I've seen him move in years.
The business side of basketball can't be ignored either. Kai represents access to the massive Philippine market, something NBA teams are increasingly aware of as they expand their global footprint. When Jeremy Lin made his run with the Knicks, the NBA saw merchandise sales in Asian markets skyrocket. A team taking a chance on Kai isn't just getting a basketball player; they're potentially tapping into one of the most passionate basketball fanbases in the world. I've seen estimates that adding Kai to a roster could generate an additional $8-12 million in merchandise and media rights revenue from the Philippine market alone in his first season.
As the Summer League progresses, I find myself checking box scores with that peculiar mix of hope and realism that comes with following any prospect's journey. The truth is, making the NBA is incredibly difficult - only about 0.03% of high school basketball players ever make it to the league. But Kai has already beaten longer odds just by getting to this point. Whether he ultimately makes a roster this year or needs more development time in the G League or overseas, what matters is that he's showing tangible progress. The dream isn't just about Kai making the NBA; it's about him staying there and proving that Filipino basketball belongs on the world's biggest stage. And based on what I'm seeing this summer, that dream feels more alive than ever.